ENERGY 2020
North
America, the New Middle East?
Citi GPS:
Global Perspectives & Solutions
20 March 2012
Edward L
Morse
+1-212-723-3871
For the
first time since 1949, the US has become a net petroleum product exporting
country and has edged out Russia as the world’s largest refined petroleum exporter.
A simple
explanation would point to lower demand and a struggling economy which requires
less imported energy. But, that would only get you half the answer. US demand
has fallen by some 2-m b/d since its peak in 2005 in part due to the recession
but also due to a structural change due to demographic changes, policies on
fuel efficiencies and the mass-commercialization of technologies.
The more
exciting part of the answer is on the supply side as the US has become the
fastest growing oil and natural gas producing area of the world and is now the
most important marginal source for oil and gas globally. Add to this steadily
growing Canadian production and a comeback in Mexican production and you get to
a higher growth rate than all of OPEC can sustain.
BP Statistical Review 2012
