IRANIAN OIL Exports
Iranian oil exports have dropped by over 40 percent over the past six months. Oil prices have also dropped due to global economic worries, which has further hurt the finances of the Islamic Republic. In addition to previous data on reduced imports Reuters informed that Turkey's crude oil imports from Iran dropped by more than 35 percent in May from April .
Official trade data showed the country imported 161,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil, down from 249,000 bpd in April and 270,000 bpd in March .
OIL EXPORTS from Iran DOWN 20-30 PERCENT
According to Reuters, a National Iranian Oil Company official in Moscow acknowledged for the first time that its oil exports have fallen sharply, down 20-30 percent from normal volumes of 2.2 million barrels daily, saying that oilfields were under maintenance and crude production was being diverted for refining. The figure means oil exports are down between 20-30 %.
UAE: Abu Dhabi pipeline avoids Strait of Hormuz
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
expects to load its first test cargo of crude this week from its Strait of
Hormuz bypass pipeline that ends at Fujairah, a major oil storage and fuel
bunkering hub on the Gulf of Oman.
The 380km, 1.5Mn b/d pipeline will lessen
the United Arab Emirates’ dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has
threatened to block. The UAE exports about 2.4Mn b/d of crude.
Part of the project is a main oil terminal
with storage capacity of 8Mn barrels. The total capacity of the project, about
11Mn barrels, will represent almost five days of UAE’s crude exports.
Strong OPEC production growth in spite of
expected supply loss from Iran
According to July 2012 forecast from the Economist
Intelligence Unit (EIU), OPEC production is expected to show strong growth this
year of 6.7%, with increased output from Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and especially
Iraq, offsetting lower Iranian production. The Organization’s supply position stood
at 31.9 Mn b/d in April with a light fall to 31.87 Mn b/d in May. Saudi
Arabia’s production was particularly strong.
The EIU considers that the European Union
(EU) embargo on Iranian oil which is set to be effective on the 1st July will
mean a loss of Iranian supply of approximately 400,000 b/d this year and around
300,000 b/d in 2013. Iran, nevertheless, adds the EIU, is expected to find
markets for much this oil, particularly in Asia, that it would in normal
conditions have exported to Europe, some disruption to supply, however,
appearing to be inevitable.
With respect to OPEC production, the EIU sees
steady growth at an annual average of 2.7% during the period 2013 to 2016, this
being boosted by firm growth in output from Iraq and the coming on stream of
the massive 900,000 b/d Manifa field in Saudi Arabia.
In terms of non-OPEC production, the EIU expects
strong growth for 2012 and beyond in unconventional North American production, in
the tar sands in Canada and in shale oil in the United States. Output increases
are also expected in Colombia, Brazil and Russia, but in the total of non-OPEC
production will be depressed by the loss of oil from South Sudan, Yemen and
Syria, as well as weak North Sea output. On an annual average basis, the EIU
forecasts that non-OPEC output will grow by a modest 1.3% in 2012 to 2013, and
towards the end of the forecast period growth in non-OPEC supply will be driven
by further increases in production from Brazil and North America.
