Key points from OPEC’s Fifth International Seminar, Vienna, 13th June

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Indian oil minister, Sudini Jaipal Reddy: 

  • “Higher oil prices raise the cost of fertilizers, hence the cost of food, thus hitting hard the poorest economies and the poorest within those poor economies”.
  • “High oil prices lead to domestic inflation, increased import cost, higher interest rates and slow economic growth”.  
  • “A sustained $10/b increase in the oil Price leads to a 1.5 reduction in the GDP of developing countries”.
 Nigerian oil minister, Diezani Allison-Madueke:  
  • Warns of the risk of a “sharp demand destruction in the second half of the year”.
OPEC Member Countries: 
  • Will invest $280 Bn over five years in 166 upstream projects to increase crude output capacity. These projects will provide a net increase in crude and condensates output of around 7 Mn b/d.
 Iraq: 
  • Expects its production capacity of 3 Mn b/d to rise to 3.4 Mn b/d by the end of this year. A further capacity increase of 500,000 b/d in 2013 and an additional increase of 700,000 b/d in 2014 will take capacity to 4.5 Mn b/d by the year 2015              
Emirates Oil Minister, Mohammed al-Hamli:  
  • UAE is making investments to increase its crude capacity by 200,000 b/d by the end of 2012.
Kuwait Oil Minister, Hani Hussein: 
  • Kuwait “will spend some $170 Bn over the next 10 years” to meet its “2020-30 vision” of reaching capacity of 4 Mn b/d, “starting in 2020 and going on to 2030”.
Saudi Arabia: 
  • Has built up 80 Mn barrels of domestic crude inventories and 10 Mn barrels of stocks abroad in a bid to convince the market that it is serious about meeting any increased demand for its crude from buyers.
EU Energy Commissioner, Guenther Oettinger: 
  • The EU imports more than 80 percent of its oil needs and “even with our energy efficiency and broader energy base strategy this figure may increase up to 90 percent or more within 10 years”.
ConocoPhillips CEO, Ryan M. Lance states that:  
  • The growth of U.S. unconventional oil and natural gas is one limit to OPEC’s influence.

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IRANIAN OIL Exports
Iranian oil exports have dropped by over 40 percent over the past six months. Oil prices have also dropped due to global economic worries, which has further hurt the finances of the Islamic Republic. In addition to previous data on reduced imports Reuters informed that Turkey's crude oil imports from Iran dropped by more than 35 percent in May from April .


Official trade data showed the country imported 161,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil, down from 249,000 bpd in April and 270,000 bpd in March .

OIL EXPORTS from Iran DOWN 20-30 PERCENT


According to Reuters, a National Iranian Oil Company official in Moscow acknowledged for the first time that its oil exports have fallen sharply, down 20-30 percent from normal volumes of 2.2 million barrels daily, saying that oilfields were under maintenance and crude production was being diverted for refining. The figure means oil exports are down between 20-30 %.


UAE: Abu Dhabi pipeline avoids Strait of Hormuz

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) expects to load its first test cargo of crude this week from its Strait of Hormuz bypass pipeline that ends at Fujairah, a major oil storage and fuel bunkering hub on the Gulf of Oman.

The 380km, 1.5Mn b/d pipeline will lessen the United Arab Emirates’ dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has threatened to block. The UAE exports about 2.4Mn b/d of crude.

Part of the project is a main oil terminal with storage capacity of 8Mn barrels. The total capacity of the project, about 11Mn barrels, will represent almost five days of UAE’s crude exports.


Strong OPEC production growth in spite of expected supply loss from Iran 

According to July 2012 forecast from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), OPEC production is expected to show strong growth this year of 6.7%, with increased output from Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, and especially Iraq, offsetting lower Iranian production. The Organization’s supply position stood at 31.9 Mn b/d in April with a light fall to 31.87 Mn b/d in May. Saudi Arabia’s production was particularly strong.

The EIU considers that the European Union (EU) embargo on Iranian oil which is set to be effective on the 1st July will mean a loss of Iranian supply of approximately 400,000 b/d this year and around 300,000 b/d in 2013. Iran, nevertheless, adds the EIU, is expected to find markets for much this oil, particularly in Asia, that it would in normal conditions have exported to Europe, some disruption to supply, however, appearing to be inevitable.

With respect to OPEC production, the EIU sees steady growth at an annual average of 2.7% during the period 2013 to 2016, this being boosted by firm growth in output from Iraq and the coming on stream of the massive 900,000 b/d Manifa field in Saudi Arabia.

In terms of non-OPEC production, the EIU expects strong growth for 2012 and beyond in unconventional North American production, in the tar sands in Canada and in shale oil in the United States. Output increases are also expected in Colombia, Brazil and Russia, but in the total of non-OPEC production will be depressed by the loss of oil from South Sudan, Yemen and Syria, as well as weak North Sea output. On an annual average basis, the EIU forecasts that non-OPEC output will grow by a modest 1.3% in 2012 to 2013, and towards the end of the forecast period growth in non-OPEC supply will be driven by further increases in production from Brazil and North America.

Proximity of ban on oil imports from Iran does not stop prices falling

25th June, 2012
Oil is on track to post its biggest quarterly fall since the financial crisis in 2008 as the eurozone crisis and weak growth in the United States roil global markets, while ample supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has added to the downward pressure on prices. 

“Another round of European sovereign debt issues ... and bearish fundamentals have already started to weigh on oil prices", Morgan Stanley said in a research note.

"If OPEC production continues at today's levels, stocks would build above normal through the third quarter and supply would outstrip demand in 2012.”

The EU’s sanctions against Iran, including a ban on oil imports and a ban on the provision of insurance for tankers shipping Iranian oil, will come into force as planned on 1st July, the EU's foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton said today. In a statement, Ashton said there would be no review of the already agreed sanctions. “There is no change in terms of how we’re going forward on July 1st,” she said. “The sanctions that have been agreed will be implemented”, Platts reports.

For its part, Bloomberg informed that oil traded below $80 a barrel for a third day in New York amid concern that Europe's debt crisis will curb demand for fuels. Futures slid as much as 1.2 percent as George Soros warned that a failure by European Union leaders meeting this week to produce drastic measures could spell the demise of the bloc’s shared currency. Developed economies are running into the limits of monetary policy, the Bank for International Settlements said in its annual report yesterday.

All of this news comes amidst a report by UPI that a stagnant U.S. economy and trouble in the eurozone is keeping demand for fuel products at lower levels, an economist from trade group API said. The American Petroleum Institute stated that U.S. gasoline demand for the first five months of the year was down 0.6 percent compared with the same period last year. API Chief Economist John Felmy said part of the slump in demand may be attributed to better fuel efficiency but most of it was because of a weak economy.


Mazhar Al-Shereidah.

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